into the late autumn, Chinese economy in the three quarter performance seems warmer.
data looks good, this is the economic trend rebound or cyclical factors? In fact, although the 7.8% higher than the two quarter of 7.5%, but not beyond the market expectations. Now, since the fourth quarter of 2012 high base, most economists predict the fourth quarter of 2013 GDP year-on-year performance is not too good, 7.8% will be the 2013 highs, more concern is, this would be the highs of 2014?
The short period of recovery
from the investment point of view, the present although currency tends to loosen, the release of infrastructure construction, but most also is the British "Financial Times" and the so-called "micro stimulation", far beyond the past stimulus money. In such circumstances, it is difficult to rely on investment to stimulate economic. As my previous column repeatedly stressed, rely heavily on the government investment in the Chinese economy like the unbearable weight: in reform lag, environmental institution building vacancy, bowel >
data is very important,<a href="http://www.camaroclubkc.com/images/_vti_log/bottega-veneta-sayihu-t-8005.html">ボッテガヴェネタ 長財布</a> http://www.camaroclubkc.com/images/_vti_log/bottega-veneta-sayihu-t-8005.html, more important is between data and data logic behind. For the macro data, investment economics has various interpretations. For example, Shun Securities chief economist Gao Shanwen believes that the current round of economic rebound is more affected by the inventory adjustment of short-term factors, its duration is difficult to expect too much,<a href="http://www.peckrealty.com/httpdocs/agents/bottega-veneta-t-1102.html">ボッテガヴェネタ アウトレット</a> http://www.peckrealty.com/httpdocs/agents/bottega-veneta-t-1102.html, adjust the end will be re entered the descending orbit, at the same time pressure on the smaller inflation rebound. In the short term after the adjustment, if the global economy goes into the next round of rising period, China's economy is expected to seek a new round of growth opportunities in external demand driven under. In contrast, Nomura Securities chief economist Zhang Zhiwei undoubtedly more pessimistic. He believes that from the quarterly data, Chinese economic data has peaked, the fourth quarter of this year, China's GDP growth is likely to slow to 7.5%, in 2014 will further slowed to 6.9%.
The
in other words, the short-term economic trend is not a problem, but the medium-term trend of economic growth are divergent. Official also expressed Chinese economy in the short-term trend of cautious optimism, 7.5% China Premier Li Keqiang early goal seems required no yu. However, along with the Chinese economy into the middle of adjustment in transition, especially is crucial to the future two or three years of performance, the 2013 GDP rebound, the rebound in reason and sustainability is more worth exploring.
regardless of reason is inventory adjustment or, or investment expenditure rising short-term or is a more fundamental problem, if China's economic structural adjustment as an arrow, then, which can replace the investment led economic power of China's economic growth? Different answers to the problem, or will determine the future of China's economy a short-term downturn after can rally.
according to the China official data, the three quarter year-on-year GDP growth of 7.8%, the first three quarters of total fixed asset investment grew 20.2%, above scale industrial added value grew 9.6%; at the same time, the above scale industrial added value in September year-on-year growth of 10.2%, the September consumer price (CPI) rose 3.1% year-on-year, 0.8%.
The
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